GOOD ECONOMIC HEADLINES
The Bush camp is insane if they don't do everything they can to publicize these economic numbers:
Reuters: New orders at U.S. factories rose by more than expected in June and May's fall was revised to show a gain, government data showed on Wednesday, while a jump in a key service sector poll added to the upbeat outlook.
The Commerce Department said factory orders advanced 0.7 percent in June, after a revised 0.4 percent gain in May that was initially reported as a 0.3 percent fall.
Wall Street had forecast orders to grow 0.5 percent in June and the data dovetailed with an Institute for Supply Management report on Monday showing U.S. factories stepped up the pace in July.
Reuters: U.S. auto sales heated up again in July, after a surprising slowdown a month earlier, even as Detroit's traditional Big Three automakers had mixed results.
Buoyed by high incentives and low interest rates, Wall Street analysts say light vehicle sales industrywide hit a seasonally adjusted annual rate between 17.1 million and 17.5 million for the month.
That would be down from a 17.8 million annual rate in May, when car sales made their strongest showing of the year so far. But it would be much better than a 15.4 million rate in June, when sales plunged to a nearly six-year low.
AFP: The American manufacturing sector sped up activity in July, cementing the longest stretch of rapid growth in more than 30 years, a survey showed.
The Institute for Supply Management purchasing managers' index (PMI), based on a survey of supply executives, rose 0.9 point from June to 62.0 in July, in line with private economists' forecasts.
It was the 14th consecutive reading above 50 points, which indicates an expansion in activity.
"The manufacturing sector continues to grow at a rapid rate as the PMI has now been above 60 percent for nine consecutive months," survey chief Norbert Ore said in a statement.
"This is the longest period of growth above 60 percent since the 12-month period of July 1972 through June 1973," he said.
AP: Wages and benefits for U.S. workers rose a moderate 0.9 percent in the April-June quarter this year, down slightly from the previous quarter's increase, as price pressures for benefits like health insurance eased significantly.
The Labor Department reported Thursday that the 0.9 percent rise in wages and benefits in the second quarter followed a 1.1 percent increase in the January-March quarter. It was the smallest quarterly increase since a 0.8 percent rise in the final quarter of last year.
THE POST ON KERRY'S BUDGET NUMBERS
Kerry, on the stump at least, appears to reject tax and spend and talks about fiscal discipline. On the other hand, when you look closer at Kerry's numbers, you see they appear to take an awfully optimistic view of what he could get through Congress, how high the savings would be, what he could persuade the Supreme Court is constitutional, etc.
Those policies, according to Kerry advisers, include restoration of caps on discretionary spending and budgets that keep the growth of discretionary spending in line with inflation, with the exception of security and education spending. Automatic cuts would come into force if spending exceeded inflation, again excluding security and education.
Kerry's health care plan would cost about $900 billion over 10 years, but when measures to cut costs are included, the price tag would fall to about $653 billion, according to estimates by Kenneth E. Thorpe of Emory University. The candidate also proposes about $200 billion in new education spending. Other major items include a cut in corporate tax rates, which would cost about $120 billion over 10 years.
To raise revenue, Kerry would roll back the income tax rate cuts for Americans making more than $200,000, repeal capital gains and dividend tax cuts enacted under Bush, and repeal the elimination of the estate tax, which Kerry's campaign said would produce about $860 billion in revenue.
Beyond repealing the Bush tax cuts, the biggest source of revenue comes from eliminating "corporate welfare" and closing tax loopholes. All together, Kerry's campaign listed $500 billion in savings over 10 years from the changes. Independent budget analysts said privately Tuesday that a Kerry administration would have trouble enacting all the changes in the tax code, given the power of special interests in Congress.
Kerry advisers outlined several other steps designed to constrain spending, including a pledge to enact a constitutionally sound line-item veto, as well as the elimination of a few small federal offices and up to 100,000 federal contractors.
I guess these high, unrealistic expectations for savings is part of Kerry's "optimism."
The only wat Kerry's numbers work is with a substantial increase in Federal Income Tax.
THE SWIFT BOAT VETS BOOK
Drudge lays out the charges in the new book by Swift boat vet and Kerry debating partner from 1971 John O'Neill and historian/researcher Jerome Corsi.
Kerry Spot reader Dennis writes in that he's worried about the ultimate political fallout of attacking Kerry's war record. "While the initial coverage of the accusations might hurt Kerry briefly, the blowback will be hell. Kerry’s denial of the accusation will be accepted at face value and once again the media will turn it into a story of how Bush, who never served, is denigrating Kerry’s service and heroism," he writes.
I'm divided on this. As I wrote earlier, a lot of GOP folk think Americans don't want to rehash the battles of the 1960s again, and they don't want to hear someone criticizing a veteran and his metals, even if the charges might be true.
On the other hand, if one looks at Kerry's Senate races, he always took one of his (Democratic, Republican, or media) opponent's comments out of context and claimed that his opponent was attacking veterans. If his opponent hadn't served, Kerry reminded Massachusetts voters of that fact every opportunity he could. It edged away from defending his record and approached bullying, and he kept using his four months in Vietnam as a stick to beat away criticisms on other issues. In other words, in the closing days of the campaign, Kerry is going to attack Bush for allegedly attacking the honor of veterans anyway.
If only half of the charges in the Vets book are true, Kerry should resign.
More later.
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