Items From the Kerry Spot on National Review Online

KERRY'S FAULTY HISTORY

"You're absolutely wrong about the bump issue: No candidate for president of the United States out of a convention has ever been running at 48, 49 and 50 percent," Kerry said, citing his own current standings.

Actually senator, you're not quite right yourself.

In 2000, Gore went from 39 percent to 47 percent in the Gallup poll. No, it's not quite the 48-50 range, but it's obviously close.

In 1992, in a two-way Gallup poll, Clinton pulled 40 percent of the vote, and then pulled either 56 percent or 57 percent in the four polls taken before the Republican convention, for a bounce of about 16 points. (This calculation is complicated by Perot dropping out of the race during the Democratic convention.)

In 1988, Dukakis jumped from 48 or so to 54 percent in one Gallup poll conducted immediately after the convention, only to drop back to 49 percent in the next poll, two weeks later. So Dukakis' bounce was either 6 points or 1 point, depending on when you measure it.

The only one who didn't come close was Bob Dole, who went from 30 percent in the Gallup poll to 41 percent, a fairly hefty 11 point bounce. Unfortunately for him, Clinton still had 48 percent and 7 percent supported Perot.

A MINI-SCOOP

Do you recall this item from Tuesday about Kerry talking about how much he likes [Ohio State] "Buckeye football" during an appearance in Michigan, before a crowd of University of Michigan Wolverine fans? Well, President Bush speaks at a rally at the Wendler Arena in Saginaw, Mich., at 6:00 pm ET.

The Kerry Spot hears that the Democratic nominee's enthusiasm for Ohio State before a Michigan crowd may come up.

While not posted here, there are several items about Swift Boat Veterans on the Kerry Spot.

Here are some basics. A group of Swift Boat crewmembers who either served with or know of John Kerry's service are publishing a book about Kerry's misadventures. The book, to be released August 15, will detail Kerry's service and contradict many of Kerry's claims of heroism including the conditions surrounding two of Kerry's Purple Hearts and the Bronze Star. It could be interesting reading and very damaging if half of the allegations are true.

Before the publications, a group of Swift Boat Veterans are also buying television time to air anti-Kerry ads. Some reports say that they are powerful and some say that they are deplorable. Again, if true, they could be devastating to the Kerry campaign.

The Bush Campaign has nothing to do with the ads or the book.

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