Pew Poll SHows Bush UP!

The latest national poll by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Oct. 1-3 among 1,002 registered voters, finds Bush maintaining a 48%-41% lead over Kerry among all voters. However, the internals of the poll suggest that Bush's margin slipped somewhat over the course of the weekend, as a growing number of voters came to see Kerry as the debate winner.

When the sample is narrowed to likely voters, Bush holds a slight edge (49%-44%) in voting intentions. This marks the first time in 16 years of Pew Research Center polling that a Democratic candidate has made a better showing on a likely voter base than on the basis of all registered voters.

The high level of Democratic motivation to vote is surprising given that only half of Democratic voters think that Kerry will win in November. By comparison, fully 85% of Republicans and even 60% of independents expect Bush will win the election.

The official Pew announcement should be out any moment now.

UPDATE: Pew poll results here. Interesting bits:
Strong Bush supporters outnumber moderate supporters by nearly three-to-one (35% strong support, 12% moderate support). By comparison, 24% of Kerry's supporters back him strongly, while 17% support him only moderately.

Similarly, Bush's supporters overwhelmingly say they are voting for him, rather than against Kerry (76% for, 20% against Kerry). By contrast, Kerry's vote remains largely an anti-Bush vote. A majority of Kerry's supporters continue to say their vote is more against Bush (56%) than for Kerry (37%)...

Kerry changes mind too much to be a good commander-in-chief: 49 percent yes, 41 percent no.

Kerry would give too much say to U.S. allies: 43 percent yes, 44 percent no.

Bush made major misjudgments on Iraq and terrorism: 46 percent yes, 50 percent no.

Bush too inflexible on foreign policy: 41 percent yes, 53 percent no.

This is a little surprising to me. Generally, the Pew Poll has been showing Kerry "well ahead" of the President. If these polling numbers are correct, it is significant.