IOWA: THE Q WORD David Hogberg
On Tuesday evening, I spoke with a person who is with the Bush Campaign in Iowa. This person wants to remain anonymous, so I will dub this person “Q.” Q confirmed that there is a ton of enthusiasm for Bush in Iowa. “There were 8,000 people at the Bush rally in Council Bluffs on Tuesday,” Q said. “The excitement continued even after the President left.”
Q also stated that social conservatives are firmly behind Bush. “We’ve had a lot of breakfast with such groups in places like the Quad Cities. We’ve also done a lot of Christian radio in the state. They are even responding not only to traditional social issues, but also to the President’s position on health care. Christians, this year, seem quite concerned about that issue.”
It was difficult to gauge how this campaign compared to previous ones, as this is Q’s first campaign in Iowa. However, Q did state that “the ground game is much more sophisticated than before.” Q’s descriptions sounded somewhat similar to Ohio.
When pressed on how Q thought the race was going in Iowa, Q seemed to give pat answers. What struck me was that Q kept emphasizing how close it was going to be, especially in Iowa. “We may not know until midnight at the soonest,” Q said. It’s hard to see that as anything other than the proper attitude. If the Bush folks really believe it is going to be close, there will be no slacking, no over-confidence going into the final days, unlike 2000.
That may be some of the best news yet.
MICHIGAN: IN DEMAND [Kathryn Jean Lopez 10/28 09:18 AM]
A source in the position to know says that signs are not being rationed in Michigan — if you can't get them it is because they are in demand. “I can assure you that the limits were a result of extremely high demand and not incompetence at the local level.” He says that the Michigan GOP ordered ordered and distributed something like 96,000 yard signs and this year ordered 258,000. At this moment, there are about 4,000 signs, this source tells me, left for an Election Eve blitz to be split amongst “18 Victory Centers.” He adds, ”Keep in mind, this doesn't count the 4,000 4x4 and 4x8 signs we ordered as well.” He says, “The fervor that has been created over yard signs this year is like nothing I've ever seen on a campaign, including the amount of theft and vandalism. One vandal got caught in the act, leaving his hatchet (yes, I said hatchet!) in the sign for our photographic delight.”
MICHIGAN: SILVERDOME Kathryn Jean Lopez
Following on Henry’s point, a reader in Farmington Hills, Michigan writes:
I was a volunteer that worked the MI rally yesterday at the Silverdome. I had the job of letting people in along with several other volunteers. This gave me the opportunity to speak with and observe lots of people. I was impressed with the massive Jewish turnout and the "Jews for Bush" were very vocal and organized and passed out free Tshirts and bumper stickers. I spoke with one of the members and he assured me the Jewish community in the Detroit area was strongly pro Bush. Also, President Bush met with many prominent African American pastors before the Rally and they joined him on stage. Speaking with a fellow volunteer who is AA, she said that there are many in her community for Bush. I wish they were more visible, but I have a hopeful feeling that many will vote for Bush in the privacy of the voting booth.
We had a crowd estimated by the media at 25,000, so it was at /least/ that large. They were very enthusiastic, they had phone banks going all day, and they were signing up volunteers for the 72 hour GOTV push.
VARIOUS: WHAT ABOUT ALL THOSE NEW DEM VOTERS? David Hogberg
Reading about all the new voters that the Democrats claim that will turn out for them, I recalled an article I wrote for NRO just after Dean lost in Iowa. Interestingly, Dean also heavily touted the “new voter” strategy: "Dean claims that the campaign is already attracting these new people in droves: 'A quarter of all the people who donate money to our campaign are under 30 years old.'
"Yet some of the evidence behind this claim is shaky. After the discovery two weeks ago of Dean's four-year-old comments criticizing the Iowa caucuses, he released a damage-control statement. Dean explained, 'Just the other day, I was in Muscatine where nearly 50 percent of those gathered either had never been to a caucus before or were not even registered to vote; but they were there because they believed we can change things,' referring to a January 7 pancake breakfast at an American Legion post in eastern Iowa. While there were a few people under 30 in attendance, the room was dominated with folks over age 50 ? i.e., those from the age demographic with the highest rates of voter participation, not to mention high rates of Iowa-caucus participation. Union members, the bulk of Democratic-caucus participants, were also well represented, including members of the UAW, American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, and the Plumbers and Pipefitters.
"Even if nearly 50 percent of those in attendance had never voted in nor attended a caucus, it's not clear how Dean would know that. He didn't spend much time talking to people one-on-one. Nor did I see his campaign staff taking a survey of the crowd to determine their recent voting habits. A call to Dean's Iowa press office yielded no answer; a spokeswoman did not know how the Dean campaign arrived at the 50-percent figure. I asked her to call me back with an answer, but she never did. I followed up with two phone messages, which were also not returned. Perhaps it all depends on what the definition of 'nearly 50 percent' is."
That strategy didn’t work for Dean, and his personality probably had a better chance of exciting so-called “new voters” than Kerry does.
The “new voters” amounted to little more than hype in January. Wonder if it will amount to much more than that on Tuesday.
I tend to agree, the "new voter" hype is just another urban legend.
Battlegrounders on National Review Online
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