GOP 527 SPENDING $14 MILLION ON "ASHLEY'S STORY"
Progress for America Voter Fund, a GOP-leaning 527, is spending $14 million on this ad.
Here's the script:
Lynn Faulkner (Ashley's father): "My wife, Wendy, was murdered by terrorists on September 11th."
Narrator: "The Faulkners' daughter Ashley closed up emotionally. But when President George W. Bush came to Lebanon, Ohio, she went to see him as she had with her mother four years before."
Linda Prince (a friend of the Faulkners): "He walked toward me and I said 'Mr. President this young lady lost her mother in the World Trade Center.' "
Ashley Faulkner: "And he turned around and he came back and he said 'I know that's hard, are you all right?' "
Prince: "Our president took Ashley in his arms and just embraced her. And it was at that moment that we saw Ashley's eyes fill up with tears."
Ashley Faulkner: "He's the most powerful man in the world and all he wants to do is make sure I'm safe, that I'm OK."
Lynn Faulkner: "What I saw was what I want to see in the heart and in the soul of the man who sits in the highest-elected office in our country."
I'm clearly not the target audience for this kind of ad, so I'm probably not the right judge for its effectiveness. But here is an analysis from USA Today:
In a year when voters in key states have been inundated with political commercials, the ad stands out because it is so different from most other ads. It neither attacks anyone nor runs down a list of issues or promises.
Its aim is to highlight Bush's "human" side. Sen. John Kerry, presumably, would also have comforted Ashley. And he has been endorsed by some family members of 9/11 victims, as has Bush. But most polls show that voters think Bush is a warmer person than his opponent. The ad is meant to reinforce that feeling in voters' minds.
Kerry has run some similar ads. Men who served with him in Vietnam have been seen talking of his bravery during that war.
This ad, essentially a young girl's touching story, would not seem to be a commercial that Bush's opponents would want to challenge. Kerry or his supporters could possibly respond, however, with similar testimonials from people he has met along the campaign trail.
Actually, it will be fun to see what reaction this ad gets from the fever swamps of the left. How long until some nutty lefty blogger attacks Ashley Faulkner as a Republican stooge?
UPDATE: Some folks wanted to know where it's running: "The ad will be seen on local stations in nine states (Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Mexico and Wisconsin) and some cable networks."
UPDATE, AGAIN: Judging by the e-mail response, this is the most weep-inducing political ad in history.
CHATTING WITH A LONGTIME GOP OPERATIVE
I wish Bush supporters who feel pessimistic or jittery could listen to the phone conversation I just had with a longtime GOP operative. This gentleman, who has been in politics longer than I have been alive, states:
* If the Washington Post/ABC tracking poll gets any more separation in the coming days, and there’s one or two good state polls for Bush, this race is over.
* The Cincinnati University poll showing Kerry up by 2 is “garbage.” It’s conducted over an entire week. The internals show Kerry leading among men 50 to 46 (what?) and leading 47 to 46 among women. Also note they have Kerry getting 95 percent of the African-American vote, when a national poll showed Bush getting 18 percent. Also note that Kerry leads among Democrats 88 to 7, independents 55 to 26, but still leads the overall poll by only two points.
* In any given cycle, the polls show about five or six GOP Senate candidates in competitive trailing who end up winning. This year, there are about six GOP Senate candidates leading in competitive races.
* In the past week or so, we’ve seen Team Kerry go after Mary Cheney; the candidate himself charge that Bush is going to bring back the draft; the citing of a disputed New York Times quote to allege that Bush is going to privatize Social Security; Kerry assert that if you get the flu this winter it’s George W. Bush’s fault; and that George W. Bush is lying when he says he wants the generals in the field to get what they need. (From the man who voted against the $87 billion!) What is this a sign of? Not a confident and aggressive campaign, but a desperate and flailing campaign.
The timing of the Social Security attacks were particularly baffling to this veteran of GOP campaigns. “Way too early,” he said. “If they did this the last weekend of the campaign, it would reach seniors, and the Bush folks wouldn’t have time to make a response. But instead they do it now.” The Bush team is responding already, and the attacks will be old news by the time Election Day rolls around.
Why would Team Kerry go so negative, so fast, so hard, and so outlandishly? They sensed a serious drop in the polls, this operative suspects. They expected to come roaring out of the debates, and instead, they’re acting as if things have really started to go south.
I don’t know if this operative is right about everything, but I sure as heck respect his instincts and his assessment.
HEY, LOOK AT THIS! COMMON SENSE IN TWO KEY STATES!
From the Washington Times:
Judges in Florida and Colorado yesterday tightened access to polling places in their states, a blow to Democrats who had argued that legal restrictions there disenfranchised voters — especially new ones, mostly Democratic-leaning minorities...
In a unanimous ruling in Florida, the seven justices of the state Supreme Court said the votes of residents who cast ballots at the wrong precincts do not have to be counted, upholding a state law that labor unions argued unconstitutionally deprived residents of the right to vote if they did not know their polling place.
In Colorado, a Denver district judge yesterday upheld a new state law requiring voters to show identification before they cast their ballots and also said residents' can vote only at their predetermined precinct.
Republican Gov. Bill Owens hailed Judge Morris B. Hoffman's decision, saying that the ruling would help Colorado "ensure the integrity of next month's elections."
"With Democrats and Republicans raising concerns about potential voter fraud, it is essential that we have a common-sense mechanism to make sure that voters who come to vote are indeed who they say they are — and that they vote only once," Mr. Owens said.
Simple way to solve this issue, folks. Call your local election office and make sure you know where you're supposed to vote. Year after year, millions of people manage to do this.
The Kerry Spot on National Review Online
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