Items From The Kerry Spot on National Review Online

FEDERAL JUDGE: FLORIDA VOTERS GOTTA VOTE IN RIGHT PRECINCT

A big deal, just reported by the AP:

In a defeat for Democrats, a federal judge in Florida says thousands of "provisional ballots" won't be counted if voters cast them in the wrong precinct.

The Florida Democratic Party had sued state elections officials, arguing that a new federal law required that wrong-precinct votes be counted. State officials disagreed, saying that Florida law makes it clear that only votes cast in the correct precinct can count.

Judge Robert Hinkle's ruling is at odds with similar cases in Ohio and Michigan. There, judges ruled that provisional ballots at the wrong precinct must be counted.


WASHPOST TRACKING POLL... [

The fact that Bush is up, 51 to 45 today, isn't the big news, in my humble opinion. The big news is that Bush has been at 50 percent or higher for six straight days. Kerry has ranged from 47 to 45 percent during that time.

MY ELECTORAL COLLEGE SCENARIO OF THE DAY

I have been fiddling with the L.A. Times game again.

Give Bush all his safe states - I include NV, AZ, CO, MO, AR, WV, VA. These are all states he won last time, and all states that have polls showing him up. (Bush losing any of them would represent a pretty serious upset, I submit.)

Now give Bush Florida, Wisconsin... and Iowa. Time to play "Hail to the Chief" as Bush hits 271, and this doesn't even count Maine's swing electoral vote, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon or Washington.

Basically, if Bush holds onto everything he needs to, and wins three swingers - Florida, Wisconsin, and Iowa - Ohio doesn't matter.

Makes you wonder if Team Kerry is focusing a little too exclusively on the Buckeye State.

HMMMM... IS THIS A MOMENTUM SHIFT?

Some interesting recent moves by the Kerry campaign:

Schedule a visit to Michigan on Monday.

For the first time, the Kerry campaign is running radio ads in Wisconsin, and is beginning a new TV ad in select markets “accusing President Bush of having a secret plan to end a program that pays dairy farmers when milk prices drop.”

Elizabeth Edwards is approvingly quoting Pat Robertson.

Maureen Dowd tells radio host Don Imus, “I know a lot of Democrats I've talked to are really resigned… They've sort of moved on in their heads to Hillary in 2008."

More Dowd:

"Kerry's problem seems to be a Gore-like problem," she complained. "He's a loser even when he's winning. Kerry won all three debates but then he somehow is behind Bush in the polls afterwards. That's not who you want as your candidate, you know, a winner who's a loser."

"[Maybe] Kerry would have done better if he chose Biden as his running mate. I mean, he's dragging Edwards along now."

"[Kerry] just seems to say what will be politically viable . . I think that's at the core of what bothers people about him. And that's what he did with Iraq."

"I think [his vote against the first Gulf War] is really sort of sinking him. Because he can't make the case against this war, then. Bush and Cheney can just chortle at him."

"I think that it was wrong and stupid to drag [Mary Cheney] into it . . . It just seemed smarmy to me."


The Kerry Spot on National Review Online