Friday, September 17, 2004

Items From the Kerry Spot on National Review Online

TOO GOOD A JOKE TO NOT PASS ALONG

From the blogger Protein Wisdom:

Dan Rather: “A corn beef sandwich, please. On rye.”

deli counter guy: “One corn beef sandwich on rye. Anything else?”

Dan Rather: “Well I’m not going to apologize, if that’s what you’re driving at.”


There's more humor at that site, too.

HAMITON JORDAN: BUSH BOUNCE 'IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE A HURRICANE IVAN SURGE'

Al Hunt, writing in the Wall Street Journal:

John Kerry remained on the defensive this week, and was unable to make up much needed ground against President Bush, according to two men who have run presidential campaigns in the past.

"The Bush bounce is beginning to look like a Hurricane Ivan surge," cracked Hamilton Jordan, who directed Jimmy Carter's presidential campaigns. With the contest still looking "more like a referendum on Kerry," he adds that the "relatively small number of undecideds" are moving "disproportionately in Bush's direction."

What advice would he give to the Democratic candidate? "He needs to find a strong and simple message and make it his own … focused on the deteriorating situation in Iraq and on the U.S. economy. …John Kerry needs to look deep inside himself, decide what he believes and thinks, cast caution to the wind and start saying it with some passion and emotion."

But John Sears, who ran Ronald Reagan's 1976 campaign, believes the Democratic nominee has "very limited" room on Iraq: "You get up and start criticizing the war and that may help Bush … Iraq ultimately may hurt [the president], but if it becomes a political issue people usually rally behind the president." Thus, he believes Sen. Kerry has "no choice" but to focus on the economy and domestic issues.

The president's campaign, however, better be careful, Mr. Sears cautions, "This week he didn't do much more than stall the clock. He's got to keep giving people reasons to vote for him. Now may not be quite the time, but soon he has to be pro-active."

Mr. Jordan believes that the president, while "hitting on all cylinders" now, is "still vulnerable on the true issues facing the country in this election. Bush only looks good right now in contrast to Kerry."

Poll News
GALLUP

AP: A Gallup poll being released Friday has Bush up 54-40 in a three-way matchup, with Ralph Nader at 3 percent.

WEIRDNESS IN THE PEW POLL

Far be it from me to tell the Pew Research Center how to conduct their polls. But the latest one seems, uh... weird.

The biggest point is that it conducted its latest poll in "two waves." The post-9/11 wave had a huge bump for Kerry.

In the first wave, Bush was up, 52 to 40. Second wave, it's tied, 46 to 46.
In the first wave, Bush was winning voters under 30 years old, 55 percent to 35 percent.

Second wave? Bush trails, 41 to 55, a 20 point shift.

First wave, Bush leads among seniors, 53 to 37. Second wave Bush trails 37 to 50.

Does this mean the poll is as reliable as a memo from CBS? No. The pollsters explain:

As more time has passed since the Aug. 30-Sept.2 Republican convention, Kerry's unfavorable ratings have receded somewhat. And while Kerry no longer holds the big advantage he once had on most issues, his standing relative to Bush has rebounded slightly on the economy.

The second wave of polling also finds less acceptance of Republican criticism of the Democratic candidate. Fewer voters agree with the statement "John Kerry changes his mind too much." Fewer think the chances of terrorism would increase if Kerry is elected. In addition, a substantial majority of voters (66%) believe Vice President Cheney went too far when he suggested recently that risk of terrorism would increase if voters "make the wrong choice." That opinion remained steady through the polling period.

Whether all this would add up to a double-digit swing in a matter of days, though... I'm still not sure.









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