FIRST REPORT FROM MIDDLE CHEESE
From Middle Cheese, who knows what senior GOP folks are saying:
The short version to GOP folks: Feel good. We're in good shape.
The final Battleground Poll showed Bush up 4.
Ohio is looking good - several polls broke last night for Bush, especially Zogby.
The Pennsylvania Republican Party is on top of all of the Philly voter fraud stuff - apparently seven voting machines had votes on them before voting began, amounting to thousands of votes! Legal action is being taken...
Exit polls will not be available for a couple of hours.
One more good sign: CBS/New York Times poll had Bush 51, Kerry 43 in early and absentee voting.
HOW THE GOP GET-OUT-THE-VOTE WORKS
If the GOP’s new and improved Get-Out-The-Vote system works as well as the early reports indicate, and it lives up to all of the hype, I will put it boldface type that I was a fool for ever doubting Ed Gillespie and Karl Rove.
This report from Kerry Spot reader Greg in Roswell, Georgia, gives a sense of just how organized this effort is, and how it might make the difference in tight races:
As for the GOTV effort, I volunteered yesterday for the GA Republican party. I remember reading months back (I think it might have even been on the Kerry Spot) someone was quoted as saying that while the Democrats knew the neighborhoods where there votes were, Karl Rove knew which block they were on. Well, let me tell you, every neighborhood that I went to, I was told which specific house to go to. At least in Georgia, they know where every individual Republican voter is. Here's how organized it was. I went to my County Republican headquarters and signed in. I told them I had about 3 hours, they had a specific set of packets that could be completed in 3 hours. The packet that I was given had detailed maps on which specific streets to go to. I was sent to heavily Democrat Decatur, GA. My list took me to specific houses. I would go down a street that was all Kedwards signs except for 1, and that was the house I had been sent to. They were extremely organized. I have a lot of confidence in the Republican GOTV effort. By the way, I turned every volunteer in the headquarters on to your site.
I know you've been getting lots of turnout updates, but here's three more. First, a little update on the happenings here in Georgia and second, via my brother, in Hillsborough County Florida and third through a friend in Pittsburgh. I live in a heavily Republican Suburb of Atlanta. The polling lines today are twice as long as I have ever seen them for a Presidential election. While this is not going to help with any more Electoral votes from GA, it is a reflection on how organized the GOTV program is and how motivated the Republicans are. I spoke to my brother who lives in a critical area of Florida in the Eastern Suburbs of Tampa in Hillsborough County. He said that turnout was so heavy that he had to leave and go to work. (He'll be back later in the day) His area has experienced significant growth in the past 4 years and that there was an article in Tampa paper about how all the growth in Tampa is in these suburban areas. He said turnout in his heavily Republican neighborhood is much heavier that the last Presidential election. Third, just got off the phone from a friend who lives in Pittsburgh. His district is about 60/40 republican/dark side. He said he normally breezes in early and is number 5 or so and votes in a few minutes. This year, he was #68 and it took 45 minutes.
Now, all of you readers who were e-mailing from the ledge of a skyscraper yesterday should hesitate before you do cartwheels. These accounts are anecdotal — and the Democrats have had an advantage in getting their votes out through unions and African-American churches for a long time.
BIG TURNOUT IN RURAL PA, MI, MN, WI
I don't want to put too much stock into the anecdotal reports I'm getting. I don't want to focus too much on the trees, and not enough on the forest.
Having said those caveats, it sounds like turnout in the rural districts and counties in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota is big. And maybe Wisconsin, too.
From Stephanie:
I vote at a Fire Hall in a small rural town in Pennsylvania... Bainbridge. I was there at 6:45 to cast my vote for President Bush. Along with about 100 other voters. This is amazing when you consider what a small area this polling location covers. After speaking with some of the old timers while waiting in line, this is unprecedented turnout.
From Frank:
I voted this morning in the Valley Forge area in the Philly suburbs. I got there around 9:20 (I've got a newborn and got a late start) and didn't vote until 10:45. Around 10:30 I overheard an election worker say they'd already had 1/3 of the total voters they had in 2000. I'd say my district tends Republican, but not heavily. One annoying thing was that the check-in process was split into three lines: A-G, H-O and P-Z. Unfortunately, the A-G book (mine) was twice as thick as the others, so my wait was longer than the last 2/3 of the alphabet. Bad planning.
The election workers expressed some concern that they'd have to shut voters out when the polls close at 8:00 pm. GOPers, don't wait until the last minute!!!!
From Mark:
I went to the polls at 7:30 in rural PA (Berks County). I waited 25 minutes to vote and was number 113. Heck, I remember going the last time in the evening and only being 150ish or so. The turnout in my precinct was high (at least in the morning).
And for variety, here is Tom in Minnesota:
I live in Blaine Minnesota. A working class suburb of Minneapolis that used to be Democratic but now is a Republican district. Turnout at my precinct was extremely heavy. We waited about a half hour in line.
Meanwhile, a friend, a Kerry supporter who lives in a very heavily Democratic area of South Minneapolis reported to me that she only had four people in front of her in line.
And Bryan in Minnesota:
I'm one of Rove's exurbanites outside of Minneapolis. Showed up at the poll at 6:30am (polls open at 7am) and the line was about 50 deep. By the time the polls opened, we estimated at least 250 in line. When I left after voting, the line was at least 150 and a pretty good traffic jam of cars trying to enter the parking lot. Much, much heavier than 2002 Coleman/Mondale election, which may not be an accurate barometer.
From Mike:
I live in Farmington Hills, Michigan which is in Southwest Oakland County. Its a rainy day but not too cold. I arrived at 9:00 am... It took about 35 minutes to vote and with what looked like an above average turnout, one of the volunteers told me that the wait was over an hour during the morning rush before people go to work.
The best thing I saw was a man who was about 30 with 2 small children getting his picture taken in line. He said that he had just become a US citizen and this was his first time voting! The pride on his face was obvious and everyone in line congratulated him. Watching this it really confirmed to me what a great and special country we live in.
UPDATE: From James in Wisconsin:
Wow, BIG turnout at my polling station in NE Wisconsin (Neenah to be specific), which is Bush country. I've never had to wait more than 10 minutes to vote in any previous election. This time, the line went out the building, all the way out to the sidewalk, and started going down the sidewalk, and it was continuing to grow the whole time I was there. It took almost an hour to get through the line. This looks good for Bush. The folks on the radio were saying election officials expect 75% turnout.
By the way, the vast majority of the people there looked like Bush people. You know, hunting caps, camo gear etc... The guy in front of me in line had a leather GOP jacket with a Bush button on it. He got all the way to the voting booth before they made him take it off. There was only one poll watcher there, and he was a Bush GOP guy.
The Kerry Spot also has a very good article on what to watch, and when, tonight as Election Coverage heats up.
The Kerry Spot on National Review Online
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