LIKE READING BETWEEN THE LINES OF PRAVDA
Polipundit has the analysis of the New York Times-CBS poll.
John Kerry has a 41% favorable, 47% unfavorable rating. This is his worst rating ever.
President Bush has a 48% favorable, 41% unfavorable rating. That is his best rating since last December.
Undecided voters lean to President Bush 50%-47%, validating the Pew finding and calling the Gallup number into question.
66% of Bush voters strongly favor their candidate.
50% of Kerry voters strongly favor their candidate.
By a 49%-34% margin, voters expect President Bush to win.
President Bush has a 49%-44% job approval rating.
The right track today is 43%. In 1996, it was only 39%.
48% of voters will vote on national security issues; only 33% on domestic issues.
By a 54%-29%, voters believe the Bush Administration has made them safer.
53% of voters do not think that Kerry agrees with their priorities, his worst number ever. 42% believe he has the same.
48% of voters do not think that Bush agrees with their priorities. 49% believe he does share their priorities.
52% of voters think Kerry has leadership qualities, his lowest number ever.
62% of voters think President Bush has leadership qualities.
57% of voters are uneasy with Kerry’s ability to handle a crisis.
60% believe Kerry says what people want to hear. Only 36% say that about President Bush.
53% of Americans say we did the right think in Iraq. Only 42% disagree.
31% say their families are better off than they were four years ago. 40% say about the same.
Most importantly, the percentage of voters call themselves a liberal has declined to 17%, the lowest number since 1997. 35% call themselves conservative.
TWO MORE THOUGHTS ON OHIO
Well, the Bush campaign may be worried that they had a bad night on Sunday night, but the latest Ohio Poll/University of Cincinnati has Bush at 50.1 percent, Kerry at 49.2 percent, and other less than one percent.
What makes this poll significant is that the last Ohio Poll/University of Cincinnati one had Kerry up 2, and their mid-September poll had Bush up 11.
Several readers suggest that it wouldn't be surprising that Bush would have a bad Sunday night, since a big chunk of his base voters, families with small children, were out trick-or-treating. I find this line of thinking plausible, but wouldn't that affect every state?
THE SCHEDULES FOR MONDAY
Via The Note:
The President's seven rallies (and only the first is at an airport!):
7:30 am in Wilmington, OH
9:30 am in Burgettstown, PA (a middle-of-nowhere town that hits PA, OH, and WV TV markets)
12:30 pm with the Oak Ridge Boys and Brooks & Dunn at the U.S. Cellular Arena in Milwaukee, WI
3:05 pm in Des Moines, IA
5:20 pm in Sioux City, IA
8:45 pm in Albuquerque, NM
11:35 pm at Southern Methodist University in Dallas, TX
Sen. Kerry's schedule, highlighted by an evening rally with Bruce Springsteen (sorry JBJ . . .)
10:10 am meets supporters upon departing Orlando
1:40 pm rally with Bon Jovi at the corner of Water and State streets in Milwaukee, WI
6:05 pm rally at Joe Louis Arena in Detroit
9:00 pm rally with Teresa Heinz Kerry and Bruce Springsteen at City Hall in Cleveland
11:30 pm rally in Toledo, OH
(Kerry flies to La Crosse, WI to sleep)
Vice President Cheney, continuing his 39-hour campaign day, has finished his Honolulu, HI trip and is flying to Colorado Springs for a 12:15 pm ET rally. Cheney holds later rallies in Henderson, NV at 5:15 pm ET, Sparks, NV at 8:45 pm ET, and 11:20 pm ET in his hometown, Jackson Hole, WY.
Sen. John Edwards rallies St. Paul, MN at 9:30 am ET, thanks volunteers in Des Moines at 12:15 pm ET and 4:15 pm ET in Cincinnati, holds an airport rally at 6:40 pm ET in solidly Republican Pensacola; and ends with a rally featuring Jimmy Buffet in Pompano Beach, FL at 10:45 pm ET.
Laura Bush is in Ohio and Michigan before rejoining her husband; Teresa Heinz Kerry is in Pennsylvania; and Elizabeth Edwards is in Wisconsin, Ohio, and Iowa.
Ralph Nader is in New York City.
Hmm. Bush is visiting a red state, blue state, blue, blue (two stops), blue, and home to Texas, red. Cheney is visiting blue, red (two stops) and stopping home in Wyoming, red. Kerry is visiting red, blue, blue, red (two stops), blue. (Sleeping in Wisconsin? What, does he win votes when he snores or something?) Edwards is visiting blue, blue, red, and red (two stops).
BAD NEWS AND GOOD NEWS
The bad news, passed on by Middle Cheese: Bush’s poll numbers in Ohio on Sunday night were terrible. Might be a bad sample, or it might be that the last minute break of the undecided is going for Kerry.
Good news: Quinnipiac has Bush up 8 in Florida, and tied in Pennsylvania. In New Jersey, they have Kerry up five. (That would still be an 11-point jump for Bush from 2000, which I find plausible.)
For those who will be sent into a panic (or euphoria) about the Ohio information above, I point out that the judging by Kerry’s last-minute visit to Detroit, the Democrats must be worried about Michigan. Like Pennsylvania, it’s one of those big blue states that if flipped to red would mean an early night for us all.
The Kerry Spot on National Review Online
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