Tidbits

All of today's tidbits come from the Kerry Spot on National Review OnLine.

IS FMA BEHIND RECENT SHIFT IN POLLS?

A Kerry Spot reader from the University of Oxford points out an interesting development. On July 14, the Rasmussen tracking polls showed the GOP doing badly in both the Bush/Kerry and GOP/Dem Congress polls: Bush trailed Kerry 45 to 48, and on the generic congressional preference question, Republicans trailed Democrats 37 to 45.

Think back to last week. Not a terribly dramatic one in the political world, correct? Yet as of July 20, Bush is up 47 to 45 (47 to 46 today) and the GOP was at 41 to 42 yesterday, 40 to 43 today.

What happened? Well, the Senate held its vote on the Federal Marriage Amendment.

"It's difficult to identify anything else that would account for the shift," the Oxford reader writes. "This suggests that 2004 is shaping up as a replay of 1988 Bush-Dukakis: the Massachusetts liberal led until the electorate realized how socially liberal he was; once this sank in, Bush took a strong lead that he never lost. The lesson for 2004 would be that the FMA is a vote-winner for Bush, and that the Kerry campaign has underestimated how out of touch it is with mainstream voters on the question of traditional marriage. Nobody seems to have noticed, but the vote on FMA may prove to be the turning point in this election."

We will need to see a lot more polls before concluding that this analysis is spot-on. For starters, this is a more socially liberal country than it was in 1988. But this may be one of those under-the-radar issues. I wonder if opposition to gay marriage is something some voters feel in their gut, but don't like admitting to a pollster on the phone.

KERRY 'DREADFULLY WEAK' RECORD ON MINORITY OUTREACH

Reuben Navarrette, a Dallas Morning News columnist, isn't impressed with Kerry's minority outreach efforts.

"The president may be too busy to speak to you now," Kerry told the members of the NAACP. "But I've got news for you. He's going to have plenty of time after Nov. 2."
That line was a big hit with the crowd, which howled its approval. Kerry has some nerve. He has a dreadfully weak track record of reaching out to minorities, and, while in the Senate, he has not been known for championing issues that matter to them. The presumptive Democratic nominee has also been criticized by people like Democratic activist Donna Brazile for not having enough people of color in the top spots of his campaign staff or putting forth specific proposals for nonwhites. (The Kerry campaign claims it has more minorities on board that it is given credit for, insisting that they make up 30 percent of the campaign staff.)

But the main problem with Kerry's pitch to minorities is that it lacks honesty. The president is no racial divider. He appointed nonwhites as top advisers and Cabinet officials, including Colin Powell, Alberto Gonzales, Condoleezza Rice, Rod Paige, Elaine Chao, Mel Martinez, and Alphonso Jackson. Bush ordered the Justice Department to put a stop to racial profiling by federal agents and criticized racist remarks by Sen. Trent Lott. And it is African Americans and Latinos who stand to benefit most from some of the administration's top domestic priorities, including the No Child Left Behind Act, the Faith-Based and Community Initiative, and recent attempts by the Department of Housing and Urban Development to revamp Section 8 housing.

Meanwhile, Kerry is making his stand on television. The campaign recently purchased a block of television time to take its message to African Americans and Latinos. All that was missing was a message — one more inspiring than: "Vote for me. I'm not George Bush." And even then, the ad campaign flopped after black Democrats in Congress panned the ads as "lackluster."

Kerry needs to stop talking so much about what Bush is doing wrong, and start emphasizing what he has done right.


KATIE COURIC, AVOIDING THE HARD QUESTIONS

Argh. Perky Katie Couric had Sandy Berger Attorney Lanny Breuer on this morning, and she asked a few campaign-related questions:

COURIC: And finally, I know that Mr. Berger stepped down as an adviser to the Kerry campaign. Did he do so voluntary or was that a request made by the Kerry campaign itself?
BREUER: A hundred percent voluntary. Sandy Berger has always taken this matter seriously. He takes the national security of this country seriously.

COURIC: Did he think he would be hurtful to the Kerry campaign if he stayed on?

BREUER: He thought that this was going to be a bit of a media circus over the next few days. He didn't want there to be any distraction from the hard work of the 9/11 commission, the commission whose work he supports. And he didn't want any distraction to the campaign.

Way to toss some creampuff softballs, Katie. The more interesting questions: Is it true, as Kerry's people say, that they were not told about this FBI investigation until the AP story hit the wires? Why was President Clinton told, but not Senator Kerry? And if that is the case, why did your client let his party's nominee get blindsided by this?

What do you expect. Katie Couric has never asked a hardball question of anyone who is a liberal, democrat, or both.

AP JUMPS GUN WITH 2008 SPECULATION

The Kerry camp is probably wishing the AP had found a different headline for this story: "Dems seen favoring Hillary Clinton in '08."

So, the 2004 race has been written off, huh? Or is this really early support for a primary challenge against President Kerry?

+Finally, there has been some buzz about the possiblility that nuclear tipped missile have been found in Iraq near Tikrit. This is a developing story from Reuters. If more develops, it will be posted.